Tom Friedman nails it

I am not a fan of Tom Friedman's writing in general, but every now and again he'll really nail one of his columns and today's was one of those times. Deeply troubling: "Where Did 'We' Go?"

"Financial systems are accidents waiting to happen."

Check out this book review by Martin Wolf (I think he's the best economics pundit writing today) of the new book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly: "This time will never be different." Even if you will never read the book, it is worth reading the review for a distillation of its lessons. I wish I had time to read this book right now...

The Tip of the Spear

This is a really interesting article: "China moves to curb industrial capacity." While it may seem like a run of the mill business article, the outcome the initiative it decribes will a have powerful effect on two things:
1) whether China will be able to reign in and reorient its economy's focus on production for export- assuming that the US' spendthrift days are not coming back anytime soon, this is exceptionally important to rebalancing the world's economy and China's development in general; and
2) whether the world will actually reduce its carbon output- this is a battle that will be either won or lost in the developing world and (assuming current trends continue) most of all in China.

Something to keep an eye on.

Sad story

So apparently a huge predatory fish is on the verge of being declared extinct: "For Chinese Padlefish, A Long Goodbye." It's sort of hard to wrap my mind around the fact that when this happens these things simply cease to be on the earth, forever. Sad.

The Art of Wall St.

Chinese artist Chen Wenling critiques the global financial crisis in What You See Might Not Be Real, on display at a Beijing gallery. The bull is said to represent Wall Street, while the man pinned to the wall represents jailed financier Bernard Madoff. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/08/entertainment_enl_1254222563/html/1.stm)

Steve Coll, Afghan Sage

The series of posts by Steve Coll that I linked to on this blog before has turned into a very interesting meditation on his part on what the history that he magestically chronicled in Ghost Wars means for our involvement in Central Asia and Afghanistan specifically. When a man who has personal anecdotes of getting shelled in Afghanistan in the late 80's is trying to give advice, I think it is worth listening (especially b/c people with real and deep experience of the country are very rare...). Check out his two most recent posts: "Ink Spots" (a look at the limited success of Soviet counterinsurgency) & "Gorbachev Was Right" (a general look at how Gorbachev framed his exit strategy from Afghanistan).

What the crisis means

This is an interesting think piece (one of many recent ones) about what we should take away from the financial crisis, in particular in terms of "rationality" and "efficient markets," which I'd say are pretty archaic concepts at this point: "Rational Irrationality." There are a ton of implications to be draw from this article and no easy answers about how to address its critiques...

Germany's election

Here's a breakdown of the results from Germany's parliamentary election: "Merkel to resist push for radical reform." This will probably affect the way that reforming finance is approached in Europe and globally...

The People's Republic of China at 60

The FT has a big spread today on how China's perception of the US is affecting the way it is headed after 60 years: "The dragon stirs."

Also from the FT today, check out this really cool interactive timeline of highlights of the PRC's history over its 60 year lifespan.

More to come on this anniversary... it's going to be quite a show.

An Afghan history lesson by Steve Coll

The next in what I hope is a long series of blog posts by Steve Coll, this time about the history of factionalism in Afhganistan: "Legitimacy and the Afghan Army." Well worth a read if, like me, you're trying to understand what the fallout from the recent ridiculously unfree and unfair Afghan election might mean for our war.

Thinking about climate change

I've come late to this video (by 2 years...), but I really like it. It's a very smart way of looking at climate change- through the prism of risk management rather than scientific certainty. Apparently this guy has a book now that's supposed to be pretty good too.

Some real thinking on Afghanistan?

I am greatly encouraged to see that the Obama admin. is seriously reconsidering the escalation in Afghanistan that we've been drifting towards since our new president took office. Here's an article in the NYT about Obama's seeming reticence to commit further: "Obama Considers Strategy Shift in Afghan War." My favorite line:

Although Mr. Obama has said that a stable Afghanistan is central to the security of the United States, some advisers said he was also wary of becoming trapped in an overseas quagmire. Some Pentagon officials say they worry that he is having what they called “buyer’s remorse” after ordering an extra 21,000 troops there within weeks of taking office before even settling on a strategy.

Does it strike anyone else as nuts that anyone wouldn't have "buyers remorse" after committing to something this deadly serious before they'd even had a chance to consider whether it was a good idea?

This article from Spencer Ackermann sheds light on how the politics of escalation are playing out in the byzantine world of our national security establishment: "Gates at the Gates: The Most Important Man in the Afhganistan Debate."

Steve Coll explains it all

Here's Steve Coll (if you haven't read Ghost Wars already I'd recommend starting tomorrow) about what the US' interests in Afghanistan really are: "Thinking about Afghanistan." A little late to the debate as readers of this blog know, but never too late to examine the assumptions at its base.

Probably a big deal for the internets

Today the FCC leaned towards "net neutrality," which (as I understand it, pls correct me if I get this wrong) means that providers cannot desciminate over the way that their networks are used or what content goes over them, etc. Example: AT&T told Apple that the iPhone couldn't use skype on their mobile network, which won't be kosher if regulations mandate "net neutrality." Hopefully this new tilt will mean lower cost and more innovative internet stuff for us all: "FCC presses for neutrality on internet traffic."

I am always shocked that these sorts of stories don't get more notice in the general public, considering how incredibly important the internet is to most of our lives. How much would it suck if you could only get Comcast sponsored websites through your Comcast internet service?

Headscarves and European Education

This article is the one of the most interesting illustrations of how complex the process of integrating conservative Muslim culture into Europe is that I have read in a while: "In knots over headscarves." Kudos to The Economist for some great reporting. Even if you have only a peripheral interest in this topic, I would recommend this article as a really interesting cultural puzzle and something to think about.

Sec. Gates in focus

Check out this big profile of Defense Sec. Gates in Wired by Noah Schachtman (who readers of this blog know is an awesome reporter): "Robert Gates: Overhaul the Pentagon." Its worth taking a look at that he's been up to- I think he will be remembered as animportant Sec of Defense in American history.

Photo Essay in China

Check out this photo essay about the preparations for the 60th anniversay of the founding of the PRC. Looks at least as stunning as the opening ceremonies for the Beijing Olympics, right?

Climate change confusion

I admist to being confused by exactly where things stand in the runup to the Copenhaagen climate change summit this fall, and this sort of article certainly muddies the picture of "concerned (but reluctant) developed countries trying to address climate change while developing countries refuse to play ball" that I feel we usually get in the US these days: "China 'to lead on climate change curbs' by 2020."

Sec. Clinton on Missile Defense

Here's a comment by Sec. Clinton on missile defense in the FT: "The new system offers real missile defense."
I predict this will continue to be a touchy issue both here and in Europe in the near future.

Insight into Post- 9/11 America

I will usually refrain from doing this, but I like this response so much (and its in such a weird format originally) that I will report it here in full. This is Michael Vlahos' (Fellow and Principal, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory & notable defense analyst) response to a debate question (entitled "On The 9/11 Anniversary: The Dog that (Still) Hasn't Barked") asking why there hasn't been 'another' 9/11 and what should be done to prevent one in the future:

Michael Scheuer is eloquent as he shakes us by the shoulders: That damn dog has been barking nonstop for eight years!

But what to make of the question — which is posed really as an all-American trope — That there was no next bark?

9-11 was a work of art the likes of which we have not seen since Leni Riefenstahl’s Triumph des Willens. If war is a liturgy of identity, then war’s theater is truly religious art. Walking through its bloody gallery across the Anthropocene, it will be hard to find a more compelling and transcendental masterpiece. 9-11 shifted the trajectory of America in History.

Surely America’s relationship with the world has been darkly transfigured.

Until 9-11 the people of these United States were still (somewhat) passionately committed to the redemption of humanity. Today we are committed to the dog that didn’t bite.

In a sunlit September instant we jumped a passage from here to eternity. From the City on a Hill (John Winthrop, 1630) to a United Nations (Franklin Roosevelt, 1945) — our entire mythic passage of becoming — we ditched it all eight years ago. Bucked that baggage.

In that instant our sacred narrative went from New Testament to Old Testament. Submit to us, convert to our faith — become like us — and ye shall prosper as our special wards.

Fight us — for whatever reason — and we will punish: Forever if need be.

We are so afraid now of another humiliation that we have made the entire world a source of threat — not simply to our physical self, but also to our geist, our very identity.

This is the dog that keeps on biting, drawing psychic American blood daily, draining our national persona, making us thrash in the pain: That we cannot control those who heap us, who task us.

Like Ahab we have been baited into heaping and tasking ourselves: Boxing ourselves into a never-ending cul-de-sac national ethos.

No longer “We Are the World” — more like, we hate the world. Just graze American blogs and listservs: NATO slackers and girly-men in Afghanistan, evil bearded Muslims, conniving and treacherous Chinamen, tattooed Latin drug pushers, pathetic Africans for whom “we can only do so much” ...

“The dog that didn’t bite” is a pristine portrait of regnant American nativism not seen since the 1930s. But at least the isolationists of that other eight-year era (1932-1940) were honest and true to their tough religious take on American nationalism. Now, what masque and masquerade we offer to the world! Our new nativists cloak their xenophobia in the magical rhetorical raiment of “Liberal Internationalism” — all the while hewing to a zeitgeist that is everyday pushing our nation remorselessly away from the mission — the essential American altruism — that once defined our identity.

What does all this mean?

It means that 9-11 achieved it all: It is an enduring realization in war’s theater. It is History’s ultimate performance art.

To bark again would put all this at risk.

This dog has had its day.

(here's a link to the original: http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/09/on-the-911-anniversary-the-dog.php#1360027)

Some reactions to the Missile Shield decision

Yesterday, Pres. Obama revealed that he decided to stop plans for the missile shield in E. Europe that the Russians hated so much. There are a number of issues with this, but it was probably the right thing to do from a technologic, military and diplomatic perspective. In any case, here are some reactions to his decision in the form of editorials by the Financial Times and the New York Times.

Great Video from Kazakhstan!

This is really cool, I think. The footage mixed to make the video was taken by some competitors in the Mongol Rally, which is a road rally from the UK to Mongolia that takes place every year to raise money for charity. I actually ran into a couple of teams from the Rally when I was in Kazakhstan, way out by the Aral Sea, and they seemed to be having an awesome time. Something I'd like to do someday...

Let It Burn

I think this comment about the way we manage macroeconomics is not only interesting but broadly correct: "Some fires are best left to burn out."
It is a little economics heavy for those less inclined to that discipline, but I think the metaphor is great- sometimes you have to let a fire burn to keep the forest healthy.

Refreshing debate in the Senate on A-stan

I am pleased and surprised that Sen. Kerry (he's on a roll I think!) convened this discussion in the Senate foreign relations committee about Afghanistan featuring Rory Stewart, one of my favorite strategic thinkers today: "Kerry Opens Vigorous Debate on Afghanistan."

For my money, the best quote came from Stewart:

Stewart disagreed, contending that the United States tended to
underestimate Afghan and Pakistani will to make decisions in their own interests
and overestimated the impact of Afghanistan to Pakistani stability. “It’s very
dangerous to mount an argument about Afghanistan based on Pakistan,” he said,
comparing weak, poor Afghanistan to a cat and nuclear-armed Pakistan to a tiger.
“We’re beating the cat,” Stewart continued, “and when you say, ‘Why are you
beating the cat?’ you say, ‘It’s a cat-tiger strategy.’ But you’re beating the
cat because you don’t know what to do about the tiger.”

Read this op-ed!

In my opinion, this might be the best concise piece written about our involvement in Afghanistan yet in this current round of debate: "Who's Afraid of a Terrorist Haven?"

More Trade Troubles w/ Canada

This is an interesting article about how the "Buy American" clause inserted into the Stimulus Package is having lasting effects: "Plea to exempt Canada from 'Buy American'."
Its notable that American companies have been forced to change their supply chains to comply with this utterly stupid clause.

How Biden Fits In

Check out this profile of how VP Biden fits into the White House: "Joe Biden, 'the skunk at the family picnic'."
Its a nice change from our last VP...

France to change economic metrics

That title of the posted article is sort of misleading, b/c I think this is more like an attempt to include quality of life as an input in measuring economic growth and move away from GDP measures. This is a hilariously French way of playing politics over economic models, but they have a point- GDP is a mostly useless way of measuring an economy: "France to count happiness in GDP."

UPDATE: For anyone interested in what the report mentioned in the article actually says, its criticisms and its recommendations, there's this article from the FT: "GDP branded as poor gauge of progress." I like this report a lot.

Trade troubles w/ China

Happy Monday. This will be an important story to follow in the coming months: "US tyre duties spark China clash."

Some Sept. 11 related articles

This is always a sad day for me. I think this article captures the human tragedy of the Sept. 11 attacks in a really poignent way: "The Real Heroes Are Dead."

On to some good news- apparently al Queda is struggling, and I can only hope its true: "Al Queda faces recruitment crisis, anti-terrorism expert says."

Roula Khalaf on the language of Mideast peace

Check out this interesting news analysis by Roula Khalaf (Financial Times mid-east reporter of note) about what the words used to talk about finding peace in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict mean: "A word on Obama's Mideast plans."

Jackass US Ambassador to Germany rolls up in style

I don't think this is how Obama's overtures to Europe were suppose to be implemented... "New US Ambassador to Germany Lands In Style."

Funny thing... our new abassador is a Goldman alum to boot!

Dexter Filkins is on the Afghan Election like white on rice

Another great article from Filkins on the astounding level of fraud committed in the recent Afghan "election:" "Fake Afghan Poll Sites Favored Karzai, Officials Assert."
I'd say that the political legitimacy of our proxy in A-stan is about shot...

Hunting bin Laden in Pakistan

This piece is based on comments from a former CIA "bin Laden hunter": "Former CIA agent's hunt for bin Laden in Pakistani badlands." A couple of things jump out besides the novelty of getting some news reporting on this (which seems to me to be exceptionally rare...). According to this guy the CIA's hunt for al Queda in Pakistan has been chronically short staffed b/c of Iraq & the Pakistani gov't signs off on "99%" of the drone strikes in Pakistan.

Matt Taibbi on Goldman's newest dastardly plot

The title of Matt Taibbi's most recent post/screed says it all: "Wall Street Gambles on Old People Dying." Almost unbelievable how little has changed since last fall...

I Love How Weird Japan Is

Check out this short post about the new Japanese PM's batty wife who has apparently visited Venus...? "Japan's New First Lady Not From Venus, Was Only Visiting" (Hat tip to Sarah)

That "hijacked" Russian Ship

Remember that story about Russia sending submarines to find a random hijacked ship that had "timber" on it? Well, that story never made sense to me... I always figured there were arms onboard, or why would the gov't care? Well, there were arms on board according to the Israeli Mossad (?!)- air defense missiles bound for Iran: "Arctic Sea ghost ship 'was carrying arms to Iran'."
No matter what gets said about this incident from now on, I'd be willing to bet that this unconfirmed rumor is closest to the truth we're going to get.

Another Schachtman from A-stan

I'm just going to keep posting these because I think they're amazing: "Fighting for Real Estate in Helmand Province- Or Losing Focus?" I think this is his best war reporting yet.

Whither the internets???

I hope they manage to keep this thing going... otherwise I'll have to find some other way to spend too much time reading news. The Economist on the past and future of the web: "The internet at 40."

"Inglorious Basterds" in Germany

This is an interesting article about the reception that "Inglorious Basterds" has gotten in Germany (very positive) and why that might be: "Germans' surprising reaction to 'Inglorious Basterds'." Maybe reads a little too much into it, but certainly thought provoking.

Chuck Hagel on Afghanistan & Vietnam

This is a really interesting and obviously heartfelt post by Chuck Hagel about his understanding of both our post-9/11 wars through the prism of Vietnam: "Afghanistan, Vietnam & and the Limits of Force."
(You can find the transcript of the conversation between LBJ and Sen. Russell that Hagel references here)

The administration's response on A-stan

Here's Sec. Gates and Chairman of the JCS Adm. Mullen discussing the new "strategy" in Afghanistan. The Secretary seems to share some of the common misgivings about this war...

The Economist's take on the Japanese election

Here's The Economist's article on the landslide election in Japan last week: "Banzai!" [best title ever] This is one to watch closely.

More on the Afghan election...

This is a good comment piece on how democracy fits into the future of Afghanistan and our war there, coupled with an assesment of the recent election: "Fraud endangers Afghan democracy."
Bottom line: the only way to manage the tribalism (read decentralization power) in Afghanistan is through a functioning democratic process.

Curbing the Power of Finance

This comment piece is the best argument I've read yet on how to shrink Finance back to a socially productive size (and keep it from holdling governments hostage): "Forget the Tobin tax: there is a better way to curb finance."

Strange happenings in Washington...

Check out this post from David Exum (counter-insurgency advocate) about a recent experience with Gwen Ifill: "The Obama Administration: MIA on Afghanistan?"
Money (and scary) quote: "As I walked out of the studio last night, though, Gwen Ifill turned to me and said, "Look, I understand you're not some fire-breathing hawk, but you're about the only person we can find in Washington to defend this war at the moment." [!!!]

Those Tricksy North Koreans...

The plot thickens (slightly) surround the arrest of two American journalists in (?) North Korea: "Journalists say N Koreans arrested them in China."

Checking in with the Global Economy

I am extremely wary of arguments one way or another about where the trend is pointing for the global economy, but its good to check in with the prognosticators once in a while: "Global rebound gathers momentum."
I think the most interesting thing to watch is how China's economy has reacted to the crisis, but the world's economy is such a complex system that I find it hard to believe that one, or a set, of statistics can capture what's going on (that's leaving aside how it affects people, because growth should be instrumental, right?).

Renewable Energy by the Numbers

I like this article on renewable energy: "Illuminating the Future of Energy." The down and dirty numbers of the industrial policy of constructing renewable energy don't get enough focus, and this article gives you a good idea (in a short 2 pg.s) of what it will take to move beyond petroleum.

Cameron on the Lockerbie Bomber Release

Here's a comment by Tory leader David Cameron (likely the UK's next prime minister) about the political firestorm created by the release of the only convicted Lockerbie bomber on compassionate grounds: "A catelogue of errors that shames the UK."
This has turned into a big deal in the UK, and an embarassment for it abroad. It's also an interesting look at a man who will probably be a major player on the world stage very shortly.

Nail in the Coffin for A-stan Debate?

As you might have guessed from my blog, I'm a keen observer of the discussion about the war in Afghanistan, and particluarly our strategic logic for being there. This (short) post pretty much seems like the nail in the coffin on that debate, and I suspect is a reasonable prediction on our future in the region: "The Afghanistan War in Theory and Practice."

UPDATE: George Will has an op-ed piece in today's WashPost entitled "Time for the US to get out of Afghanistan." I have no doubt that this is the thin end of the wedge...