The next decade in context

Check out this interesting comment piece from Martin Wolf about where we are and where we might be heading in the next decade: "How the noughties were a hinge of history."

FYI, posting will probably be slow over the holidays, but I'll try to keep up with it on some minimal level until the new year.

Demographics and China's economy

This chart from The Economist demostates a crucial point about China's demographics, which ought to disabuse you of the notion (often taken as conventional wisdom in the US) that China is a bottomless pot of cheap labor.

This explanatory caption accompanied the chart: "SINCE the 1970s China’s birth rate has plummeted while the number of elderly people has risen only gradually. As a result its “dependency ratio”—the proportion of dependents to people at work—is low. This has helped to fuel China’s prodigious growth. But this “demographic dividend” will peak in 2010. China’s one-child policy will keep birth rates low, but as life expectancy continues to increase, so will the dependency ratio, reducing the country’s potential for growth. The government could yet salvage the situation by loosening its one-child policy. More children would increase the dependency ratio until they were old enough to join the workforce, but reduce labour shortages in the long term."

If you're particularly interested in this topic in general, I heard an interview with the author of this book, The Age of Aging, and it deals with the demographic shifts in Asia in much more depth. Tell me what you think if you read it!

Copenhagen coalition already falling apart

I never expected much from the Copenhagen meeting on climate change, but its disturbing to see this lowest common denominator agreement already breaking down: "Climate change alliance crumbling."
As for previous examples of this sort of international negotiation, the series of multilateral trade negotiations resulting in the WTO (now stuck on the Doho round) is probably the best contemporary historical guide we have, and it moved along at a glacial pace. I think probably the only good to come of Copenhagen is the global networking of civil society representatives and activists who can push their governments on the national level towards action.

Well it could be worse...

Can't imagine that this is an accurate measure of the gloom currently covering the UK, but check out this weird (and informative!) comment piece in the FT about the collapse of the British economy after the sacking of Rome: "Call this a recession? It isn't the Dark Ages."

WTF?! Major blow to all current US wars

The US military captured an insurgent with intercepted drone intelligence on a laptop, meaning that the integrity of the entire US combat drone network, which is the essence of our advantage in both Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and any future forseeable war, is compromized: "Insurgents Intercept Drone Video in King-Size Security Breach." How did they do it? With a program you can buy online for $25. What a lesson on the nature of power in the technology age...

Watershed Russian reformer dead

Yegor Gaidar, one of the central figures of post-Soviet Russian history and leader of the economic reform movement early on in Yeltsin's first term has died. Here are a couple of obits- from the FT "Russian economist who shocked old guard dies" & the NY Times "Russia's Market Reform Architect Dies." Gaidar leaves behind an extraordinarily complicated legacy, but has always been a provocative thinker and a central fixture in the Russian economic policy scene.

Also well worth checking out is this piece of analysis, also in the FT, examining the state of play within Russia's highly dynamic power elite and what it might mean for the future: "Russia: Shift to the shadows."

Someone perfectly articulates my problem with Obama diehards for me

Wow, this is almost cathartic for me to read this blog post because it so explains so well why I have been very upset with the way that many people I would generally agree with have reacted to Pres. Obama. I suppose I can sum this up as, if it wasn't OK when George W. Bush did it, why is it any better or different when Barack Obama does??? In any case, read this: "My friend the President."

Obama's nobel speech

Just finished watching Obama's nobel lecture, and I think it is by far the most informative statement of his beliefs about power, war and international affairs that we've got to date. Absolutely fascinating and well worth a watch (clocks in at around 36 mins... the video below is part 1 of 4, just click through the after its done to see part 2, 3, 4)



The sections in which he wrestles with the moral ambiguities of war and peace were to me the most interesting. Unfortunately, his thinly veiled policy justifications just reminded me of all the ways he has failed to honor his principles in my opinion. I think I need to exhibit more patience with him though- either he's slowly working his way towards his vision and struggling mightily, or he is morally disingenuous. Even if he fails, I hope its the former...

China's apollo program for green energy

Check out this piece in the New Yorker about China's green energy push: "Green Giant." Crafty communists! This is exactly the sort of crash program I think we ought to be doing. Authoritarianism certainly seems to have its perks when it comes to ordering rapid change, but I suppose there's always this to worry about: "China's strong and brittle state." (I suppose the title says it all).

How the escalation happened

This is the best article I've read yet on how the escalation in the Afghan war happened and why: "The day the general made a misstep." Bottom line: there really hasn't been much change from the Bush years.

The Drone War

I remain convinced that the exponential growth of the US military's use of robotics caused by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will be these wars' longest lasting legacy, so for me how they're used is something to watch closely. Check out this great blog post by Noah Shachtman about how our policy of targeted assasinations in Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan are blending together: "U.S. Military Joins CIA's Drone War in Pakistan."

Also if you're interested in reading further about the unnervingly quick proliferation of robots in our military, I recommend this book: Wired for War.

Unemployment in America

Check out this striking geographic illustration of US unemployment's development as our economic crisis has progressed:

Martin Wolf on the global "slow moving train wreck"

Check out another great comment piece by Martin Wolf (I hope he puts his columns since last fall into a book), which is I think is his most persuasive and forceful explanation of the potentially catastrophic effects of global trade imbalances yet: "Why China's exchange rate concerns us." This article will be of interest for anyone wondering about the big picture of the global economy at present or is curious about why Americans are so often up in arms about China's currency.

Remember Iraq?

I am equal parts amazed that the recent spate of violence in Iraq has gotten such nonchalant attention in the US media and annoyed that each successive bombing is labeled by a lazy press corps some sort of "reminder" (brutal, bloody, etc...) of the lingering insurgency there - maybe it never left, but our attention did? Anyways, this happened recently: "Coordinated Bombings Kill at Least 101 in Baghdad."

Brooks' innovation agenda

Check out David Brooks' op-ed in the NY Times today, I think he lays out a very sensible and realistic agenda for turning our economy around in the medium term: "An Innovation Agenda."

Outrageously inappropriate Congressional actions in Africa

I am absolutely FLOORED about this:


I would consider myself a fairly conservative realist when it comes to the appropriate degree of democracy and "human rights" promotion in US foreign policy, and it is always a challenge balancing our cultural and historical values with our interests. However, in this case I am absolutely offended that these representatives of our government actually promoted such obscene persecution of vulnerable populations- and in the name of a minority set of values in the US as a whole! More incredible still to my mind, for what other than personal satisfaction did these men sully our reputation? What possible benefit for the United States does promoting (not even simply ignoring) this behavior provide? This sort of situation should be the definition of the word scandalous... not some bullshit sexual escapades in the personal life of an elected official.

On the hunt for an Afghan endgame

Spencer Ackerman, one of the stars of American national security reporting, seems to be hot on the tail of the Obama admin.'s vision of a mid term endgame for our war in Afghanistan: "Is Containing Al-Qaeda the Real Endgame in Afghanistan-Pakistan?" If Ackerman's right, I wish that Pres. Obama would have sketched this out, and pushed back against the prevailing conventional wisdom left by the Bush admin., in his speech this week instead of giving us meaningless promises of "withdrawl" and contradictory messages. But I can get behind this war if it leads to a reasonable policy of containment based on regional proxies.

What do recent dev'ts in Honduras mean?

I think that this situation certainly poses some interesting questions about our approach to democracy promotion and the way in which the international community responded to the coup in Honduras: "Honduran congress votes against Zalaya's return." At the very least its a cautionary tale about assuming other government's are working towards the same goal we are (er... Karzai...).

Trade disputes

First of all, what a wonder that we have a global mechanism for adjudicating trade disputes instead of getting involved in self-destructive tariff wars. I found this chart reflecting trade dispute activity at the WTO very interesting.

Chart and following caption from The Economist: "IN THE 15 years since its birth on January 1st 1995, 401 trade disputes—over matters ranging from export curbs on minerals to restrictions on the import of seal products—have been brought to the World Trade Organisation’s dispute settlement body (DSB). The bulk of cases have been brought by a few litigious WTO members. America and the European Union have lodged 176 cases since the WTO came into being, and are also the most frequently complained against. Rich countries were the heaviest users of the DSB in the first five years of its existence, filing more than three-quarters of all complaints. But in the ten years since, that share has fallen to just over half, as big emerging economies have become active trade litigators."

Nice juxtaposition in coversage

I found this to be an interesting exercise because the difference in approach was so obvious- check out these two articles, one from the NY Times and the other from the FT, about the CBO report on the proposed health care reform: "No Big Cost Rise in U.S. Premiums Seen in Study" & "Expected US health reform savings disappoint."

The Big Afghanistan Speech

Months in the making (presumably), here's Pres. Obama's speech on our renenergized war in Afghanistan:




I like this speech a lot, and I support giving our president's plan a fair chance to succeed... but I am deeply skeptical about how this is going to work and there are some ponderous incongruities in this speech. I suppose it goes without saying that I'll be posting here about how this all pans out- but I promise not to overwhelm this blog with A-stan.

Hilarious!

Sorry it's so small (click on it to enlarge). I think this actually sums up pretty well the tone of US/Russia bilateral relations, plus its brilliant. Here's the link to the original at superpoop.com. (H/t to Ben for finding it.)

Photo essay

I think this photo essay is really cool: "Portraits of Power." The photographer apparently took these portraits in a little booth outside the general assembly meeting at the UN this past fall.

We must have more strategery!

I like this article a lot: "Why America Needs an Economic Strategy." I know its old (I just got around to reading it), but I think that it is premised on two important observations: 1) we have become incapable of strategic planning on the federal level & 2) our economic issues are self inflicted, and not the fault of the global system (of which we were the architects) or "rising nations" (read China). Well worth a read as we move past the scary-as-hell phase of our economic crisis.

How many Muslims has the US killed in the last 30 years?

About the chart: "Here's my back-of-the-envelope analysis, based on estimates deliberately chosen to favor the United States. Specifically, I have taken the low estimates of Muslim fatalities, along with much more reliable figures for U.S. deaths. "

Steve Walt is trying to be deliberately provocative with this blog post, but it stands considering nonetheless: "Why they hate us (II): How many Muslims has the US killed in the last 30 years?"
Although it does cast the conflict in just the sort of "civilizational" tones we ought to avoid to ask how many Muslims have Americans killed (Americans can't be Muslims?).

Some interesting science

Check out this short article explaining some new science regarding how exercise affects the brain: "Why Exercise Makes You Less Anxious."

Back from Thanksgiving

Sorry for the pause in posting! I was enjoying doing nothing over vacation too much to put anything up.

A "war surtax" should be more than just a sign of frustration

There's lot of other stuff in this article, but the point that stands out to me is the idea of passing a "war surtax": "Pressure Builds Over Obama's Afghanistan Plan." I cannot think of a better tool than an explicit tax for rebalancing Americans' attitudes towards defense spending, which in my opinion has been characterized in recent years by thoughtless jingoism and willful ignorance of the costs of our foreign adventures. Either you "support the troops" and are thus willing to pay for it, or you don't. I would be willing to bet that as soon as that tax hit Americans' wallets, the option to wind down our commitment in A-stan would at least be on the table. Hey, we might even ask why we're willing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars rebuilding Afghanistan, while people freak out about how we're much spending to rebuild our economy...

Don't get it, but an interesting peek

I am baffled by the emotional response that Sarah Palin elicits from people in this country, but I have to admit that it seems very genuine and very powerful. I was struck by this video of no special importance (plus I felt like it brackets the "Palin 2012" skit nicely...):

US finance still dancing to the wrong song?

Charles Prince, former Citigroup CEO famously explained his bank's actions in July, 2007 thus: "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." I feel very much with that recent era in mind, Gillian Tett at the FT asks a very provocative question: "Could sovereign debt be the new subprime?"

If this is a bit outside your expertise, the question is basically, Banks are being forced to buy tons of government debt (bonds) because they are supposedly super-safe assets, but why should we assume that they will remain so and what happens if they're not? It's a scary question, b/c this sort of "perpetual" motion machine of super low central bank rates financing a ton of sovereign bond purchases is the current foundation of both the US government's borrowing and the American banks' recovery- but it's hard to say what happens when the music stops.

Palin 2012- the movie

SNL is on a roll

China/US relations summed up:

Way to go SNL. Guess it takes humor to spell out the truly sad aspects of our present reality...

GM raises interesting questions

I like this op-ed about what GM owes the public for its bailout: "Taking Taxpayers For A Ride." I am not steeped in knowledge about the auto industry, but I view the GM/US Gov't relationship as a sort of metaphor for the gov'ts market involvement in general. I also find it particularly gauling, and ridicoulous, that the banks and now GM think they can just wish away their debt to the taxpayer by repaying some small token amount and making headlines.

Interesting profile

Check out this interesting profile of an unlikely sidekick in Iraq: "Emma Sky, a Civilian Voice at Odierno's Side in Iraq."

Germany piling on

Here's yet more evidence of our economic standing in the world: "Germany warns US on market bubbles." Maybe we ought to take notice when both Germany and China publicly speak out about the potential dangers of our economic policy- I happen to agree with some of their criticism, but don't see a better option for the US. On the other hand, it's perhaps not insignificant that China and Germany are the two largest exporting nations in the world...

Hamilton was MAD street

Hamilton is by far my favorite founding father, and I basically felt obligated to share this, because I think it's sick. Also I am plainly a history nerd. Enjoy!

Obama's dearth of action on climate change

Check out this article from Grist on how Pres. Obama must start to measure his policies against scientific reality instead of the low bar set by previous American presidents: "Mr. President: Time to quit fibbing and spinning." I know there's a tremendous amount of stuff on this admin.'s plate, but you can't have your climate change cake and eat it too: either our president considers this a priority of the first order (the impression I got in his campaign, etc.) or he doesn't- I completely agree that it's time that he lines his actions up with his words or explains why he changed his mind.

US, Egypt and Iran wobble as Turkey cleans up

Check out this Roula Khalaf article in the FT about Turkey's ascendant role in the politics and diplomacy of the Middle East: "Ankara pursues lead role in Middle East." This is a very interesting turn for a country which has throughout its modern history turned towards Europe in its foreign relations- hard to say this shift is due to changing mentality in the Turkish gov't or nature simply abhorring a vacuum in the Middle East...

Also, Ive recently been reminded that the FT only allows a certain number of free articles on its website if you're not a subscriber and I'm certain I post more than that number. For the ppl regularly following my links, would it be more convenient if I could try to find other sources where possible? Pls leave any responses in the comments section.

Our gov't has certainly fallen fast

This article hit me like a slap in the face, and it certainly seems like a sign of the times: "China says Fed policy threatens global recovery." In case you don't care about the economics involved, the gist is that the Chinese gov't is now publically and vocally criticizing the most intimate aspects of American domestic economic management, an event that would have been unimaginable in the very recent past. We have certainly fallen on hard times. For all that, I have to say I hardly blame the PRC considering their role as our chief financier. I predict that it's going to be incredibly difficult for our national psyche to adjust to this new reality...

From Cuba to cornfields

Check out this article on the possibility of moving suspected terrorists from Guantanamo to Illinois: "Illinois Democrats Back Plan to House Guantanamo Prisoners." I want to close the book on this chapter in our history so badly. Furthermore, can everyone just take a deep breath and remember that the base at Guantanamo, like our embassies overseas, technically is US soil?

Lessening expectations from Copenhagen

This is an interesting examination of the nuts and bolts behind the push for a binding climate change treaty: "Obama rules out Copenhagen treaty." Watching this process play out will be a fascinating lesson on the state of the international system. I'll certainly be posting more about this soon.

Graveyards and history in A-stan

Check out this great article by Dexter Filkins about a Taliban cemetery in Afghanistan: "For Taliban Fighters, A Fading Memorial." Some interesting bits of historical and cultural insight to be gleaned from these sorts of accounts (or not, but interesting nonetheless).

New York City: 1930 to today

Check out this cool photo gallery set up by the NY Times in which you can see three pictures side by side of locations throughout the city, one from the 1930s, one from the 1980s and one from today: "Evolution, as traced by lens."

A great argument for tougher competition enforcement

I am a staunch supporter of much more stringent competition scrutiny in American in general and in American Finance specifically (I think it has to be part of reforms going forward), and John Kay in the FT makes a great case for it: "Powerful interests are trying to control the market." The key is to recognize "rent-seeking" in the rich world is a form of corruption, which varies in degree but not in kind from that of poorer countries, and to recognize that we have a serious problem with it here in America.

Sachs: Stimulate restructuring, not consumption

I usually do not agree with Jeff Sachs on much (putting it lightly), but I think he is dead on in this comment piece: "Obama has lost his way on jobs."
Of course it is easy to just say, instead of governing by necessity we should be setting policy strategically. But this is a democracy and its tough to think long term in our system of government so I'm inclined to give Obama some leeway. But Sachs is absolutely right that we need to be orienting our policy towards a fundamental restructuring of our economy (plus, economics aside, I cringe for our environment when pundits claim we need to 'ramp up consumption'). The one we've got hasn't been working.

Afghanistan's "Narcotecture"

Check out this collection photos of "narcotecture" (houses built with drug money) in Kabul: "A Photo Tour of Kabul's Poppy Palaces." Too bad money can't buy class I guess...

Lightbulbs in the middle of nowhere

Check out this article by Andrew Revkin (who runs the great Dot Earth blog at the NY Times), which points to yet another manifestation of the "flotsam explosion" (floating trashing) in our oceans and seas as a metaphor for slow brewing environmental crises: "Flashback: On Slow Drips From Trash to CO2."

Slower posting, I know

Just wanted to let anyone who reads this blog regularly that I'm going to have to update at a slightly slower rate than usual because of a project at work. I'll keep it up though, and in a couple of weeks we'll be back to normal. Hope you're enjoying Of Not on the Internets in any case!

Old art that speaks to our current struggles

I saw this poem referenced on a blog about Afghanistan today, and I looked it up to find a powerful expression of why the odds are stacked against our war there. Check out this poem by Kipling on the Anglo-Afghan war:

Arithmetic on the Frontier

A GREAT and glorious thing it is
To learn, for seven years or so,
The Lord knows what of that and this,
Ere reckoned fit to face the foe -
The flying bullet down the Pass,
That whistles clear: " All flesh is grass."

Three hundred pounds per annum spent
On making brain and body meeter
For all the murderous intent
Comprised in "villainous saltpetre".
And after?- Ask the Yusufzaies
What comes of all our 'ologies.

A scrimmage in a Border Station-
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail.
The Crammer's boast, the Squadron's pride,
Shot like a rabbit in a ride!

No proposition Euclid wrote
No formulae the text-books know,
Will turn the bullet from your coat,
Or ward the tulwar's downward blow.
Strike hard who cares - shoot straight who can
The odds are on the cheaper man.

One sword-knot stolen from the camp
Will pay for all the school expenses
Of any Kurrum Valley scamp
Who knows no word of moods and tenses,
But, being blessed with perfect sight,
Picks off our messmates left and right.

With home-bred hordes the hillsides teem.
The troopships bring us one by one,
At vast expense of time and steam,
To slay Afridis where they run.
The "captives of our bow and spear"
Are cheap, alas! as we are dear.

-R. Kipling

(source: Arithmetic on the Frontier)

Sy Hearch on Pakistan's nukes

A new article in the New Yorker from Sy Hersh has been a bit of an event in and of itself for some years now, so check out his latest piece: "Are nuclear weapons safe in Pakistan?" This is something I've thought about a bit, and I'm almost convinced that the US' game plan in the event that the Pakistani state were toppled is simply to take the nukes... this wouldn't be the first time: the Russian government simply took control of the Soviet nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan after the USSR dissolved, and then allowed the fiction of "negotiations" over the state of those weapons play out afterward.

Children's movies are often really grown up

Check out this article (really a short essay) by Times movie critic A. O. Scott on how children's movies in recent years tend to be much more complex and realistic than the ones geared towards adults: "Unleashing Life's Wild Things On Screen."
I totally agree with him, in particular I think "Wall-e" and "Where the Wild Things Are" are two of the most intellectually and emotionally complex and interesting (not to mention best) movies I've seen in recent years.

Sign of the times

This is an interesting measure, not sure of what though. Perhaps of globalization's prevelance as an idea or concept? The rise of neo-liberal economics? I don't know... thoughts?

Taken from economist.com here.

More daft trade policy from Obama admin.

This disturbs me so much: "US slaps duties on Beijing steel pipes." Such a wrong headed policy, and for anyone keeping score at home (er... China) Washington's protectionist actions are amount to a clear anti-trade pattern. It's getting to the point when I can no longer take solice in, Well let's just see where he heads with this...

Cool photo essay

So apparently 1989 was a pretty sweet year. Check out this FP photo essay on the amazing happenings, which I totally remember, since I was 5 yr.s old... "Falling Like It's 1989."

Thinking about the Tories

There will soon be an general election in the UK and all signs point to a Tory victory. It's interesting to take account of what that might mean in foreign policy, especially since they are grappling with some of the issues that we face ourselves in the US. Check out this piece on David Cameron's foreign policy problems: "Tories' foreign policy foibles go far beyond just Europe."

If you're still interested, I'd highly recommend this article on Rory Stewart, who is now standing for a safe Tory seat: "Rory Stewart: A new kind of Tory." There really seems to be a great deal of excitement about his candidacy in the UK, and I am greatly looking forward to following his political career.

Bad news for Afghan war

The UN is sort of moving towards pulling out of A-stan after a Taliban attack in which 5 of its workers were killed: "UN to evacuate staff from Afghanistan." This is incredibly unfortunate, and undoubtedly exactly what the Taliban were hoping to affect with their attack. I think it's so repugnantly cynical of the Taliban to drive out the staff best placed to help develop Afghanistan for its people in the future in order to help their campaign now.

You'll recall that the UN pulled out of Iraq after a its headquarters were bombed in 2003, killing special representative Sergio Vieira de Mello and 16 others. I have read in various places that the UN's exit was a turning point for the worse in the situation in Iraq. I hope this isn't viewed the same way in the future. At the very least, that's just that many more US civilians that will be needed for our war effort (and we're already way short...).

Huh, Really Makes You Think...

This is one of the more preposterous things I've read recently. Check out this Bloomberg article about a Goldman exec trying to invoke the teachings of Jesus as a justification for economic inequality: "Profit 'Not Satanic' Barclays Says, After Goldman Invokes Jesus." This is beyond a poor PR decision...
For an entertaining rant about why anyone would actually say something like this in public, see Matt Taibbi: "Goldman One-Ups Gordon Gecko, Says Jesus Embraced Greed."
This just might be a disturbing window into the worldview of some of these individuals (or at least this particular one and his staff, still awful).

Currency: the elephant in the room

If you're wondering what people mean when they talk about 'rebalanced the global economy' a lot of it has to do with currency issues. This article is a nice analysis of those issues by the world trade editor at the FT: "Renminbi at heart of trade imbalances."

Great comment on what markets are for

Check out this comment piece from The FT: "Tame the markets to make capitalism ethical." I think the authors hits on some very important points about what markets are good for and why we defend them. The takeaway for me: markets are instrumental. We have gotten into trouble by fetishizing markets as something instrinsically sacred.

And now for something completely different...

Check out this article about the headlines of The Onion: "Newspaper Celebrates - The Onion's 'Our Front Pages.' " I have always had unfailing admiration for the pitch perfect tone, etc. of their headlines, and this article shed a lot of light on how they get so perfect.

Real Talk on A-stan

John Mearsheimer makes the hard arguments about our war in A-stan and what lessons to draw from Vietnam: "Hollow Victory."
His conclusion: In A-stan, as it was in in Vietnam, 'victory' is irrelevant b/c it it will not significantly affect the US' global standing, whereas conducting the war is activily harming our position.

Why I hate the Washington Post

This is exactly the sort of logic that ought to be keeping Americans up at night: "The threat from Somalia." I have to give the Washington Post's editorial board credit for letting the courage of their convictions lead them to the logical extreme of counterinsurgency strategy, but honestly, is there any way to not view this as insane? I doubt this argument is acceptable in polite company even amongst the most ardent counterinsurgency advocates.
I used the Post's editorials in my grad thesis as a straw man representing how outrageously alarmist American analysis of the August war in Georgia was last summer. I'm glad to see that future generations of students writing on US foreign policy will have the same crutch...

Election, what election?

So there won't be a runoff election in Afghanistan: "Karzai Gets New Term as Afghan Runoff is Scraped." I wonder if we'll ever hear the real story behind this disaster. I guess this is the least bad option considering the money and lives that will not be lost proping up this farce, but there is now little hope of having the political legitimacy that is supposedly the bedrock necessity of our strategy's success in Afghanistan.

Photo Essay: Somalia

Check out this photo essay on refugees in Southern Somalia: "No Place to Hide." So dismal.

Trade blowback

Hmm... remember all those trade issues we've been having recently with China? Well, apparently they've noticed too: "China to investigate US car subsidies." I hope this serves as a lesson for our wobbly-on-trade president.

From recession to stagnation

Apparently the US' recession is over: "US economy grows by 3.5%." We still face a long haul and hopefully quite a bit of reform, but this is good news.

Poor newspapers...

From The Economist

Sometimes all you can do is laugh

There are really some things that can only be said through satire. Check out this Onion article, the title says it all: "U.S. Continues Quagmire Building Mission in Afghanistan."

Sen. Kerry on Counterinsurgency

I think Sen. Kerry is on a roll, and I'm glad to see that he is bucking the general inertia towards escalation in the Afghan war. His remarks from a recent press conference:

" 'We cannot and we should not undertake a manpower-intensive counterinsurgency operation on a national scale in Afghanistan,' said Kerry, D-MA, sounding a lot like his Senate cohort Carl Levin, D-MI, who has also advocated for a strategy centered around building up Afghan forces, not adding U.S. combat soldiers.

'I am convinced, from my conversations with General Stanley McChrystal ... he understands the necessity of conducting a smart counterinsurgency in a limited geographic area,' Kerry went on, 'But I believe his current plan reaches too far too fast.' "

I think I can live with limited counterinsurgency, as long as our strategy explicitly acknowledges the limits of this approach and shies away from our recent grandiose ambitions for Afghanistan. I read somewhere recently that Kerry might make a good Secretary of State, and I have to admit his thinking on the big issues have been a lot more interesting than Sec. Clinton's...

The Garbage Island

I have been really fascinated and horrified by the great pacific garbage patch for some time. If you don't know, we have basically ruined out oceans and perhaps the most stunning evidence of that is a gigantic cluster of floating plastic in the middle of the pacific ocean. The picture above is part of a photo essay on decomposing birds, which have been raised on plastic from the garbage island. The video below is a short program filmed by a ship that sailed through the garbage patch. I don't know why we don't talk about our oceans more, this is a problem that is already a catastrophy today.

Foreign Service Officer resigns over Afghan war

This is a really interesting story, both because of this guy's personal story and his analysis: "U.S. official resigns over Afghan war."

George Soros is right

Check out this short article in on an interview with George Soros: "Soros calls Wall St. profits 'gifts' from state." He is absolutely right about this and it is entirely intentional effect of recent policy. That banks are being recapitalized in the process is the point (although its a tricky way of going about it), but why anyone deserves a "performance" bonus when their "profits" come from government fiat is beyond me. I guess we have to keep up the illusion...?

Photo Essay

Check out this photo essay: “Pollution in China.” Really heartbreaking stuff, but crucial to keep in mind as we all marvel at the PRC's economic growth sprint.

Unbelievable

Check out this crazy story about how Wall St. chiefs are snubbing an Obama fundraiser in NYC: "Wall St. Giants Reluctant to Donate to Democrats." Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.

This is enough to literally make me gag:

Dr. Daniel E. Fass, another chairman of the event who lives surrounded by financiers in Greenwich, Conn., said: “The investment community feels very put-upon. They feel there is no reason why they shouldn’t earn $1 million to $200 million a year, and they don’t want to be held responsible for the global financial meltdown.” Dr. Fass added, “How much that will be reflected in their support for the president remains to be seen.”

Intense story

Check out the five part series that David Rohde of the NY Times is writing about his months of captivity with the Taliban: "Held by the Taliban."

Great article on the future of political science

This is a really interesting article on how confused the field of political science is about its relevance and direction: "Field Study- Just How Relevant Is Political Science?"

I felt the issues discussed in the article very keenly at Columbia. I believe the very best political science comes from applying rigorous empirical analysis to the underlying assumptions of broader questions, my favorite example being a paper I read on whether the "hate radio" accused of fermenting genocide in Rewanda actually played such a central role. (It didn't- the paper demonstrated that b/c of the hilly geography the radio had a very limited range and the chronology of the Rwandan genocide didn't match the pattern of inflamatory broadcasts.) This particular question was of central importance because of the way the radio station's history was used in prosecuting war crimes and in rebutting claims that Western governments could have "just simply bombed the radio transmiters to stop the genocide." But for the broadest (and most important questions) I think you are into political philosophy or history.

Karzai caves

I can only imagine the conversation between Sen. Kerry and Pres. Karzai before this announcement: "Kawzai Agrees to Nov. 7 Runoff."
Afghanistan is heading towards some sort of "constitutional coup" in my opinion... the US gov't is obviously looking for some legalistic way to push Karzai out of the loop. At least we're not having him shot in the back of an APC like our last client in a counterinsugency.

On the Goldstone report

It is hard for me to disagree with this editorial from the FT: "Goldstone's Gaze report is balanced."

Kicking down doors on Wall st.

This is the sort of news I would like to see a lot more of in the near future: "Wiretapping reminiscent of tackling mobsters." I find it funny that the FT seems to find wiretapping "white collar" criminals so outrageous (and its an interesting question, Was recent financial fraud really that much less harmful than the drug trade in this country, etc?), but it's nice to see American regulators get serious about fraud on Wall st. I suspect that there will be much more to come considering the ways in which people made money in the run up to the crisis, plus the small stuff seems rampant.

I hope it was worth it...

A great chart from The Economist.

How is the stimulus doing?

Here's a short article on the early effects of the administration's stimulus package: "Stimulus sustains 30,000 jobs." Obviously way too early to draw any conclusions, but interesting nonetheless.

Explaining the problem with Goldman

John Gapper of the FT is doing a two part column on Goldman right now, the first half of which is very reasonable and realistic (rare for stuff on Goldman, which is usually either written by flaks for the bank or ppl who hate it): "A credibility problem for Goldman."

My favorite quote:

"Thus, at the heart of the financial system, now sits a professionals-only, high-risk Wall Street firm with its own private equity and hedge funds arrayed on top of a nonpareil corporate and government client list, which taxpayers reasonably assume is gambling with their money.
You do not have to be a vampire squid-style conspiracy theorist to see the difficulty. Goldman wants to carry on as its old self (but bigger) in a world that has changed."

Baby steps on climate change

This article provides a great example of the small, easy stuff that I am probably most interested in when it comes to addressing climate change: "A Greenhouse Gas That's Already A Commodity." It's amazing to me that you'd actually have to convince the leadership of companies that this is a good idea- it makes money, right?

What caused the crash: the one sentence explanation

I really like this op-ed: "Wall Street Smarts." It's funny and short, but I think it honestly captures a lot of the pressures that made people do the wrong things for the wrong reasons in the late 90s and 2000s.

Frontline: Obama's War

Here is the full episode of Frontline on the Afghan War:



Here's the link to the PBS site for the episode, which has lots of great supplemental stuff (maps, interviews, documents, etc.). I'd recommend checking it out. Powerful stuff.

What a smaller footprint in A-stan might look like

For those of you wondering (as I have to be honest) what a truly smaller military footprint in Afghanistan might look like, here's a serious attempt to out the "counterterrorism approach": "What a CT mission in Afghanistan would actually look like."

I think that sounds pretty good, but it would hinge on how long we could remain in Afghanistan without completely eroding the legitimacy of our mission.

Great news for Armenia and the South Caucasus

Turkey and Armenia are finally on the path towards normalizing their bilateral relations. Although this event directly affects a small corner of the earth, I think this is a huge deal. When I was living in Yerevan I cannot overstate the extent to which Armenia's sealed border with Turkey warped daily life in that impoverished country and in the region as a whole. Even for a comparatively wealthy American, travel from Armenia to Turkey was prohibitively expensive and full of hassles, involving either a flight (once a week I think) to far away Istambul or a very bumpy car ride hours north to Georgia and then over the border into Turkey. And this despite the fact that Turkey was literally close enough to look at. This move will hopefully bring some much needed dynamism to both Armenia and the South Caucasus as a whole.

The picture above is of Mount Ararat. I took it from the balcony of my apartment and saw it almost every day just like the other residents of Yerevan, Armenia's capital and largest city. Ararat is a sacred mountain for Armenians and plays a central role in their national identity (its even on their national coat of arms- its the mountain right in the middle). However, since Ararat is just across the border it has been very difficult to visit and served as a constant reminder of the painfully strained relations with neighboring Turkey, over the Armenian-Azeri war earlier in the 1990s and the historical questions surrounding the Armenian genocide (or whatever you want to call it, not trying to be provocative). That mountain always felt to me like a looming reminder of the the artificial cleavages left in the wake the wars of the 1990s, and honestly even as a visitor I found it galling that I couldn't really visit. Hopefully that will soon change.

Update: If you're interested in a concise rundown of the issues involved with the detente, check out this article at Foreign Policy.

The PRC is still on a roll in Africa

Here's some further evidence that China is totally remaking Africa's relationship with the rest of the world, and reducing Western influence there in the process. I'm not sure there's a moral valence to this, but it certainly is going on: "China in push for resources in Guinea."

Barack Obama, Nobel laureate

It's a big day for videos on this blog, huh?! Here's Pres. Obama's speech reacting to his recent award.



I like his response, I think it takes this award and casts it in the best possible light while attempting to use it to further his particular causes/policies. However, I find something that Obama explicitly acknowledged in his speech uncomforable: "And I know that throughout history, the Nobel Peace Prize has not just been used to honor specific achievement; it's also been used as a means to give momentum to a set of causes." Obama considers this prize a nudge by the Nobel commission (I don't know why I care what they think anyways, but here goes) towards a certain type of American policies and politics, and I agree with him.

Don't get me wrong, I find some of those policies and causes attractive and I generally think Obama's vision for the world is a positive one. But I can't help being rubbed the wrong way, just a bit by what amounts to a very public intervention in American politics. And if this sort of intervention- an honor no less!-causes me to react this way, I can't help but worry about how people in the developing world feel when we come and tell them to run their governments or live their lives a certain way.

I think this is actually one of the central ironies of American foreign policy- we jealously guard our sovereignty as a "city on a hill" yet insist on preaching our gospel to everybody else (something that Reinhold Nieburh commented on best and far more eloquently in The Irony of American History if you're interested).

In any case, a "teachable" moment for me. I wonder if anyone else reacted this way?

Rep. Alan Grayson on A-stan

I'm not familiar with his politics, so I can't say that I endorse the man in any way, but I think this is insightful commentary on what the "best foreign policy" is for the US- "leave people alone." I admire him for taking this stance, there isn't anyone else in government willing to say it.

Perfect hilarity at Glenn Beck's expense

If you've ever been annoyed with Glenn Beck, you must watch this...

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Bend It Like Beck
http://www.colbertnation.com/
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor Michael Moore

Obama wins Peace prize?

I just don't get it... and I don't think it will end well for any parties involved. Gideon Rachman sums up my feelings perfectly:

"I am a genuine admirer of Obama. And I am very pleased that George W Bush is no longer president. But I doubt that I am alone in wondering whether this award is slightly premature. It is hard to point to a single place where Obama’s efforts have actually brought about peace - Gaza, Iran, Sri Lanka? The peace prize committee say that he is being rewarded for his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy”. But while it is OK to give school children prizes for “effort” - my kids get them all the time - I think international statesmen should probably be held to a higher standard.

It is also very odd timing. In the next couple of weeks, Obama is likely to yield to the wishes of his generals and to send many thousands more troops to Afghanistan. That will mean he is a wartime president, just as much as Bush or Lyndon Johnson. If Afghanistan ends up being Obama’s Vietnam, giving him the Nobel Peace Prize will look even sillier in a few years time." (his orignal post is here)

Yeah, remember that war in err... Afghanistan?

Drought in East Africa

Whether its the result of climate change or simply a weather cycle, there are a ton of people in serious trouble in East Africa: "Even the Camels Are Dying." As if the constant warfare wasn't enough...

Where did American conservatism go so wrong?

I highly recommend reading this long-ish article on the intellectual history of the American conservative movement: "Conservatism Is Dead."
Of interest regardless your personal political leanings...

Obama shifts China policy

US diplomacy has long used "bumper sticker" stype phrases to encapsulate the essence of a major policy ("containment", "clear, hold, build", etc.). Under Bush 43, the all encapsulating phrase of the US' policy towards China was "responsible stakeholder," which appeared endlessly in the Administration's communications on China. Obama seems to have very quitely shifted to a new phrase: "strategic reassurance."
I think this is a very big deal, and in fact is a huge shift. It is a sign of a more realist, pragmatic approach to China and is more in tune with efforts at creating a real partnership between the world's two most important countries. I always felt like calling for China to become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system (which we created...) sounded like the scolding of a disappointed parent... Im glad to see that the new China team has less of a tin ear.

Interesting insight into UK politics

Check out this comment piece fromt the FT about the foreign policy dynamics in the Tory bid to unseat Labour in the upcoming election: "Little Englanders are of little use to America." There are some interesting lessons to be drawn about the 'special relationship', English politics and the UK's place in Europe in this little piece.

You will not be eating fish in 30 years

Or at least you won't if current trends are any guide... the worldwide stock of fisheries is terrifyingly close to depletion: "Aquapolyse Now."

The global over-exploitation of fish stocks and the rampaging of our ocean's ecosystems will be familiar to anyone who regularly reads The Economist, but other than them I am always shocked at how little attention this gets. If you're interested The Economist did a special report on this not too long ago: "Plenty of fish in the sea?"

So... this is akward...

Apparently Iranian president Ahmadinejad is really just the most flagrant self-hating jew in history? This is truly a bizarre twist: "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad revealed to have a Jewish past."
Seriously, Israel would be compelled to grant him citizenship if he asked, right?

Update: this may or may not be true... I've read conflicting reports. Anyone have any insight? Either way its a great story.

Noah Schachman's photo diary

Check it out, he took some amazing shots: "Shootouts, Pot Fields and Spy Drones: Danger Room in Afghanistan." I am really amazed at the high quality of coverage that we're starting to get out of Afghanistan and the maturity and dynamism of the debate taking place on the war. I apologize if this blog is too Afghan War-heavy at the moment... its just the elephant in the room for me.

Front Line: "Obama's War"

This is absolutely not something to miss if you're at all interested in the Afghan War. It airs online and on PBS on Oct. 13th at 9pm... I'll repost the website to watch it on then, but for now here's their rough cut teaser:

Khalaf on Sanctions

Here's a great news analysis piece by my favorite Middle East correspondent Roula Khalaf of the FT on why sanctions are unlikely to be effective in altering the Iranian governments behavior: "Sanctions would trap west as much as Tehran." Sobering analysis that begs the question, Then where do we go?

Sen. Kerry on Iran

Here's an intelligent comment piece from Sen. Kerry on where to head on Iran: "Time for diplomacy to end standoff with Iran." I don't know about you, but I am very impressed with his career in the Senate post-2004. I think he's right, taking "yes" for an answer will be the hardest part for us...

Happy Bday PRC

Here is the treasure trove of pictures from China's 60th birthday party we've all been waiting for: Xinhua

Tom Friedman nails it

I am not a fan of Tom Friedman's writing in general, but every now and again he'll really nail one of his columns and today's was one of those times. Deeply troubling: "Where Did 'We' Go?"

"Financial systems are accidents waiting to happen."

Check out this book review by Martin Wolf (I think he's the best economics pundit writing today) of the new book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly: "This time will never be different." Even if you will never read the book, it is worth reading the review for a distillation of its lessons. I wish I had time to read this book right now...

The Tip of the Spear

This is a really interesting article: "China moves to curb industrial capacity." While it may seem like a run of the mill business article, the outcome the initiative it decribes will a have powerful effect on two things:
1) whether China will be able to reign in and reorient its economy's focus on production for export- assuming that the US' spendthrift days are not coming back anytime soon, this is exceptionally important to rebalancing the world's economy and China's development in general; and
2) whether the world will actually reduce its carbon output- this is a battle that will be either won or lost in the developing world and (assuming current trends continue) most of all in China.

Something to keep an eye on.

Sad story

So apparently a huge predatory fish is on the verge of being declared extinct: "For Chinese Padlefish, A Long Goodbye." It's sort of hard to wrap my mind around the fact that when this happens these things simply cease to be on the earth, forever. Sad.

The Art of Wall St.

Chinese artist Chen Wenling critiques the global financial crisis in What You See Might Not Be Real, on display at a Beijing gallery. The bull is said to represent Wall Street, while the man pinned to the wall represents jailed financier Bernard Madoff. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/08/entertainment_enl_1254222563/html/1.stm)

Steve Coll, Afghan Sage

The series of posts by Steve Coll that I linked to on this blog before has turned into a very interesting meditation on his part on what the history that he magestically chronicled in Ghost Wars means for our involvement in Central Asia and Afghanistan specifically. When a man who has personal anecdotes of getting shelled in Afghanistan in the late 80's is trying to give advice, I think it is worth listening (especially b/c people with real and deep experience of the country are very rare...). Check out his two most recent posts: "Ink Spots" (a look at the limited success of Soviet counterinsurgency) & "Gorbachev Was Right" (a general look at how Gorbachev framed his exit strategy from Afghanistan).

What the crisis means

This is an interesting think piece (one of many recent ones) about what we should take away from the financial crisis, in particular in terms of "rationality" and "efficient markets," which I'd say are pretty archaic concepts at this point: "Rational Irrationality." There are a ton of implications to be draw from this article and no easy answers about how to address its critiques...

Germany's election

Here's a breakdown of the results from Germany's parliamentary election: "Merkel to resist push for radical reform." This will probably affect the way that reforming finance is approached in Europe and globally...

The People's Republic of China at 60

The FT has a big spread today on how China's perception of the US is affecting the way it is headed after 60 years: "The dragon stirs."

Also from the FT today, check out this really cool interactive timeline of highlights of the PRC's history over its 60 year lifespan.

More to come on this anniversary... it's going to be quite a show.

An Afghan history lesson by Steve Coll

The next in what I hope is a long series of blog posts by Steve Coll, this time about the history of factionalism in Afhganistan: "Legitimacy and the Afghan Army." Well worth a read if, like me, you're trying to understand what the fallout from the recent ridiculously unfree and unfair Afghan election might mean for our war.

Thinking about climate change

I've come late to this video (by 2 years...), but I really like it. It's a very smart way of looking at climate change- through the prism of risk management rather than scientific certainty. Apparently this guy has a book now that's supposed to be pretty good too.

Some real thinking on Afghanistan?

I am greatly encouraged to see that the Obama admin. is seriously reconsidering the escalation in Afghanistan that we've been drifting towards since our new president took office. Here's an article in the NYT about Obama's seeming reticence to commit further: "Obama Considers Strategy Shift in Afghan War." My favorite line:

Although Mr. Obama has said that a stable Afghanistan is central to the security of the United States, some advisers said he was also wary of becoming trapped in an overseas quagmire. Some Pentagon officials say they worry that he is having what they called “buyer’s remorse” after ordering an extra 21,000 troops there within weeks of taking office before even settling on a strategy.

Does it strike anyone else as nuts that anyone wouldn't have "buyers remorse" after committing to something this deadly serious before they'd even had a chance to consider whether it was a good idea?

This article from Spencer Ackermann sheds light on how the politics of escalation are playing out in the byzantine world of our national security establishment: "Gates at the Gates: The Most Important Man in the Afhganistan Debate."

Steve Coll explains it all

Here's Steve Coll (if you haven't read Ghost Wars already I'd recommend starting tomorrow) about what the US' interests in Afghanistan really are: "Thinking about Afghanistan." A little late to the debate as readers of this blog know, but never too late to examine the assumptions at its base.

Probably a big deal for the internets

Today the FCC leaned towards "net neutrality," which (as I understand it, pls correct me if I get this wrong) means that providers cannot desciminate over the way that their networks are used or what content goes over them, etc. Example: AT&T told Apple that the iPhone couldn't use skype on their mobile network, which won't be kosher if regulations mandate "net neutrality." Hopefully this new tilt will mean lower cost and more innovative internet stuff for us all: "FCC presses for neutrality on internet traffic."

I am always shocked that these sorts of stories don't get more notice in the general public, considering how incredibly important the internet is to most of our lives. How much would it suck if you could only get Comcast sponsored websites through your Comcast internet service?

Headscarves and European Education

This article is the one of the most interesting illustrations of how complex the process of integrating conservative Muslim culture into Europe is that I have read in a while: "In knots over headscarves." Kudos to The Economist for some great reporting. Even if you have only a peripheral interest in this topic, I would recommend this article as a really interesting cultural puzzle and something to think about.

Sec. Gates in focus

Check out this big profile of Defense Sec. Gates in Wired by Noah Schachtman (who readers of this blog know is an awesome reporter): "Robert Gates: Overhaul the Pentagon." Its worth taking a look at that he's been up to- I think he will be remembered as animportant Sec of Defense in American history.

Photo Essay in China

Check out this photo essay about the preparations for the 60th anniversay of the founding of the PRC. Looks at least as stunning as the opening ceremonies for the Beijing Olympics, right?

Climate change confusion

I admist to being confused by exactly where things stand in the runup to the Copenhaagen climate change summit this fall, and this sort of article certainly muddies the picture of "concerned (but reluctant) developed countries trying to address climate change while developing countries refuse to play ball" that I feel we usually get in the US these days: "China 'to lead on climate change curbs' by 2020."

Sec. Clinton on Missile Defense

Here's a comment by Sec. Clinton on missile defense in the FT: "The new system offers real missile defense."
I predict this will continue to be a touchy issue both here and in Europe in the near future.

Insight into Post- 9/11 America

I will usually refrain from doing this, but I like this response so much (and its in such a weird format originally) that I will report it here in full. This is Michael Vlahos' (Fellow and Principal, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory & notable defense analyst) response to a debate question (entitled "On The 9/11 Anniversary: The Dog that (Still) Hasn't Barked") asking why there hasn't been 'another' 9/11 and what should be done to prevent one in the future:

Michael Scheuer is eloquent as he shakes us by the shoulders: That damn dog has been barking nonstop for eight years!

But what to make of the question — which is posed really as an all-American trope — That there was no next bark?

9-11 was a work of art the likes of which we have not seen since Leni Riefenstahl’s Triumph des Willens. If war is a liturgy of identity, then war’s theater is truly religious art. Walking through its bloody gallery across the Anthropocene, it will be hard to find a more compelling and transcendental masterpiece. 9-11 shifted the trajectory of America in History.

Surely America’s relationship with the world has been darkly transfigured.

Until 9-11 the people of these United States were still (somewhat) passionately committed to the redemption of humanity. Today we are committed to the dog that didn’t bite.

In a sunlit September instant we jumped a passage from here to eternity. From the City on a Hill (John Winthrop, 1630) to a United Nations (Franklin Roosevelt, 1945) — our entire mythic passage of becoming — we ditched it all eight years ago. Bucked that baggage.

In that instant our sacred narrative went from New Testament to Old Testament. Submit to us, convert to our faith — become like us — and ye shall prosper as our special wards.

Fight us — for whatever reason — and we will punish: Forever if need be.

We are so afraid now of another humiliation that we have made the entire world a source of threat — not simply to our physical self, but also to our geist, our very identity.

This is the dog that keeps on biting, drawing psychic American blood daily, draining our national persona, making us thrash in the pain: That we cannot control those who heap us, who task us.

Like Ahab we have been baited into heaping and tasking ourselves: Boxing ourselves into a never-ending cul-de-sac national ethos.

No longer “We Are the World” — more like, we hate the world. Just graze American blogs and listservs: NATO slackers and girly-men in Afghanistan, evil bearded Muslims, conniving and treacherous Chinamen, tattooed Latin drug pushers, pathetic Africans for whom “we can only do so much” ...

“The dog that didn’t bite” is a pristine portrait of regnant American nativism not seen since the 1930s. But at least the isolationists of that other eight-year era (1932-1940) were honest and true to their tough religious take on American nationalism. Now, what masque and masquerade we offer to the world! Our new nativists cloak their xenophobia in the magical rhetorical raiment of “Liberal Internationalism” — all the while hewing to a zeitgeist that is everyday pushing our nation remorselessly away from the mission — the essential American altruism — that once defined our identity.

What does all this mean?

It means that 9-11 achieved it all: It is an enduring realization in war’s theater. It is History’s ultimate performance art.

To bark again would put all this at risk.

This dog has had its day.

(here's a link to the original: http://security.nationaljournal.com/2009/09/on-the-911-anniversary-the-dog.php#1360027)