The next decade in context

Check out this interesting comment piece from Martin Wolf about where we are and where we might be heading in the next decade: "How the noughties were a hinge of history."

FYI, posting will probably be slow over the holidays, but I'll try to keep up with it on some minimal level until the new year.

Demographics and China's economy

This chart from The Economist demostates a crucial point about China's demographics, which ought to disabuse you of the notion (often taken as conventional wisdom in the US) that China is a bottomless pot of cheap labor.

This explanatory caption accompanied the chart: "SINCE the 1970s China’s birth rate has plummeted while the number of elderly people has risen only gradually. As a result its “dependency ratio”—the proportion of dependents to people at work—is low. This has helped to fuel China’s prodigious growth. But this “demographic dividend” will peak in 2010. China’s one-child policy will keep birth rates low, but as life expectancy continues to increase, so will the dependency ratio, reducing the country’s potential for growth. The government could yet salvage the situation by loosening its one-child policy. More children would increase the dependency ratio until they were old enough to join the workforce, but reduce labour shortages in the long term."

If you're particularly interested in this topic in general, I heard an interview with the author of this book, The Age of Aging, and it deals with the demographic shifts in Asia in much more depth. Tell me what you think if you read it!

Copenhagen coalition already falling apart

I never expected much from the Copenhagen meeting on climate change, but its disturbing to see this lowest common denominator agreement already breaking down: "Climate change alliance crumbling."
As for previous examples of this sort of international negotiation, the series of multilateral trade negotiations resulting in the WTO (now stuck on the Doho round) is probably the best contemporary historical guide we have, and it moved along at a glacial pace. I think probably the only good to come of Copenhagen is the global networking of civil society representatives and activists who can push their governments on the national level towards action.

Well it could be worse...

Can't imagine that this is an accurate measure of the gloom currently covering the UK, but check out this weird (and informative!) comment piece in the FT about the collapse of the British economy after the sacking of Rome: "Call this a recession? It isn't the Dark Ages."

WTF?! Major blow to all current US wars

The US military captured an insurgent with intercepted drone intelligence on a laptop, meaning that the integrity of the entire US combat drone network, which is the essence of our advantage in both Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and any future forseeable war, is compromized: "Insurgents Intercept Drone Video in King-Size Security Breach." How did they do it? With a program you can buy online for $25. What a lesson on the nature of power in the technology age...

Watershed Russian reformer dead

Yegor Gaidar, one of the central figures of post-Soviet Russian history and leader of the economic reform movement early on in Yeltsin's first term has died. Here are a couple of obits- from the FT "Russian economist who shocked old guard dies" & the NY Times "Russia's Market Reform Architect Dies." Gaidar leaves behind an extraordinarily complicated legacy, but has always been a provocative thinker and a central fixture in the Russian economic policy scene.

Also well worth checking out is this piece of analysis, also in the FT, examining the state of play within Russia's highly dynamic power elite and what it might mean for the future: "Russia: Shift to the shadows."

Someone perfectly articulates my problem with Obama diehards for me

Wow, this is almost cathartic for me to read this blog post because it so explains so well why I have been very upset with the way that many people I would generally agree with have reacted to Pres. Obama. I suppose I can sum this up as, if it wasn't OK when George W. Bush did it, why is it any better or different when Barack Obama does??? In any case, read this: "My friend the President."

Obama's nobel speech

Just finished watching Obama's nobel lecture, and I think it is by far the most informative statement of his beliefs about power, war and international affairs that we've got to date. Absolutely fascinating and well worth a watch (clocks in at around 36 mins... the video below is part 1 of 4, just click through the after its done to see part 2, 3, 4)



The sections in which he wrestles with the moral ambiguities of war and peace were to me the most interesting. Unfortunately, his thinly veiled policy justifications just reminded me of all the ways he has failed to honor his principles in my opinion. I think I need to exhibit more patience with him though- either he's slowly working his way towards his vision and struggling mightily, or he is morally disingenuous. Even if he fails, I hope its the former...

China's apollo program for green energy

Check out this piece in the New Yorker about China's green energy push: "Green Giant." Crafty communists! This is exactly the sort of crash program I think we ought to be doing. Authoritarianism certainly seems to have its perks when it comes to ordering rapid change, but I suppose there's always this to worry about: "China's strong and brittle state." (I suppose the title says it all).

How the escalation happened

This is the best article I've read yet on how the escalation in the Afghan war happened and why: "The day the general made a misstep." Bottom line: there really hasn't been much change from the Bush years.

The Drone War

I remain convinced that the exponential growth of the US military's use of robotics caused by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will be these wars' longest lasting legacy, so for me how they're used is something to watch closely. Check out this great blog post by Noah Shachtman about how our policy of targeted assasinations in Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan are blending together: "U.S. Military Joins CIA's Drone War in Pakistan."

Also if you're interested in reading further about the unnervingly quick proliferation of robots in our military, I recommend this book: Wired for War.

Unemployment in America

Check out this striking geographic illustration of US unemployment's development as our economic crisis has progressed:

Martin Wolf on the global "slow moving train wreck"

Check out another great comment piece by Martin Wolf (I hope he puts his columns since last fall into a book), which is I think is his most persuasive and forceful explanation of the potentially catastrophic effects of global trade imbalances yet: "Why China's exchange rate concerns us." This article will be of interest for anyone wondering about the big picture of the global economy at present or is curious about why Americans are so often up in arms about China's currency.

Remember Iraq?

I am equal parts amazed that the recent spate of violence in Iraq has gotten such nonchalant attention in the US media and annoyed that each successive bombing is labeled by a lazy press corps some sort of "reminder" (brutal, bloody, etc...) of the lingering insurgency there - maybe it never left, but our attention did? Anyways, this happened recently: "Coordinated Bombings Kill at Least 101 in Baghdad."

Brooks' innovation agenda

Check out David Brooks' op-ed in the NY Times today, I think he lays out a very sensible and realistic agenda for turning our economy around in the medium term: "An Innovation Agenda."

Outrageously inappropriate Congressional actions in Africa

I am absolutely FLOORED about this:


I would consider myself a fairly conservative realist when it comes to the appropriate degree of democracy and "human rights" promotion in US foreign policy, and it is always a challenge balancing our cultural and historical values with our interests. However, in this case I am absolutely offended that these representatives of our government actually promoted such obscene persecution of vulnerable populations- and in the name of a minority set of values in the US as a whole! More incredible still to my mind, for what other than personal satisfaction did these men sully our reputation? What possible benefit for the United States does promoting (not even simply ignoring) this behavior provide? This sort of situation should be the definition of the word scandalous... not some bullshit sexual escapades in the personal life of an elected official.

On the hunt for an Afghan endgame

Spencer Ackerman, one of the stars of American national security reporting, seems to be hot on the tail of the Obama admin.'s vision of a mid term endgame for our war in Afghanistan: "Is Containing Al-Qaeda the Real Endgame in Afghanistan-Pakistan?" If Ackerman's right, I wish that Pres. Obama would have sketched this out, and pushed back against the prevailing conventional wisdom left by the Bush admin., in his speech this week instead of giving us meaningless promises of "withdrawl" and contradictory messages. But I can get behind this war if it leads to a reasonable policy of containment based on regional proxies.

What do recent dev'ts in Honduras mean?

I think that this situation certainly poses some interesting questions about our approach to democracy promotion and the way in which the international community responded to the coup in Honduras: "Honduran congress votes against Zalaya's return." At the very least its a cautionary tale about assuming other government's are working towards the same goal we are (er... Karzai...).

Trade disputes

First of all, what a wonder that we have a global mechanism for adjudicating trade disputes instead of getting involved in self-destructive tariff wars. I found this chart reflecting trade dispute activity at the WTO very interesting.

Chart and following caption from The Economist: "IN THE 15 years since its birth on January 1st 1995, 401 trade disputes—over matters ranging from export curbs on minerals to restrictions on the import of seal products—have been brought to the World Trade Organisation’s dispute settlement body (DSB). The bulk of cases have been brought by a few litigious WTO members. America and the European Union have lodged 176 cases since the WTO came into being, and are also the most frequently complained against. Rich countries were the heaviest users of the DSB in the first five years of its existence, filing more than three-quarters of all complaints. But in the ten years since, that share has fallen to just over half, as big emerging economies have become active trade litigators."

Nice juxtaposition in coversage

I found this to be an interesting exercise because the difference in approach was so obvious- check out these two articles, one from the NY Times and the other from the FT, about the CBO report on the proposed health care reform: "No Big Cost Rise in U.S. Premiums Seen in Study" & "Expected US health reform savings disappoint."

The Big Afghanistan Speech

Months in the making (presumably), here's Pres. Obama's speech on our renenergized war in Afghanistan:




I like this speech a lot, and I support giving our president's plan a fair chance to succeed... but I am deeply skeptical about how this is going to work and there are some ponderous incongruities in this speech. I suppose it goes without saying that I'll be posting here about how this all pans out- but I promise not to overwhelm this blog with A-stan.